You can use a white stone to avoid breaking your items, however they will still downgrade if you pick the broken card. The white stones can be expensive.
If your asking how to know where the success card is all the time, I have no idea, just look at my signature. Thats just the pick of the bunch, I have had plenty of similar days. Im personally not convinced that it matters which card you pick, I personally think you will get the same result no matter what, but thats just me.
When you cheer out loud in a skype call because you only got the FAIL card as opposed to BROKEN, then you know you have problems upgrading..... oO
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